THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM

There are many different definitions for the term terrorism. Webster defines terrorism as violence committed by groups in order to intimidate a population or government into granting their demands. (Merriam-Webster) The Federal Bureau of Investigation defines terrorism as the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. Terrorism is believed to be a systematic threat or use of unpredicted violence by organized groups to achieve a political objective. It has been used throughout history and throughout the world by political organizations of both the left and the right, by nationalist and ethnic groups, and revolutionaries.

    Though usually thought of as an instrument for destabilizing or overthrowing existing political institutions, terror has also been employed internally by a government's army or secret police against its own subjects to create a climate of fear and encourage adherence to the national ideology; examples include the reigns of certain Roman emperors, the French Revolution Nazi Germany, and the Soviet Union in the Stalinist era. The deadliness and technological sophistication of modern-day weapons and the ability of mass communications to inform the world of such acts have magnified terrorism's impact. The first wave of terrorist began somewhere around the 1960's traced back to the Middle East in a conflict between Arab nations and Israel. Jewish radical such as the Stern Gang and the Irgum Zvai Leumi resorted to terrorism in their struggle for an independence Israel in the late 1940s. Their Arab adversaries in the 1960s and beyond chose to use terrorism more systematically. The spread of terrorism beyond the Middle East in the 1960s was conspicuous in West Germany and Italy, and inspired by vague Communist ideologies and typically supported by sympathizers in the affluent middle classes.

    The FBI only categorizes terrorism as two particular types which are international terrorism and domestic terrorism (Source date). Domestic terrorism is defined as groups or individuals who target particular element with the country without any foreign involvement. International terrorism are groups or individuals whose activities are foreign and coordinated by countries or groups located outside of the United States. Usually, this is also done for government policies that have been handed down. In recent years, there has been a growing threat of terrorism, hindering how we live our everyday lives. Terrorism can take on many different forms depending on the means that the particular organizations is trying to prove. Bombings are the most popular methods used in a act (Source date). Terrorist want to target positions that they know will cause a real major effect to that economy like transportation facilities, utility companies, or other public services (Source date). They don't to want to completely demolish a particular economy but to make them fear within society and insecure about themselves.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

    Terrorist groups are constantly interacting with transnational organized crime syndicates, mostly with narcotics cartels. Taken to its logical end, there might be a natural partnership between some terrorist groups and transnational organized crime syndicates. Organized crime syndicates frequently have access to and influence with political leaders, making such syndicates beneficial to terrorist groups that would seek to influence and intimidate, rather than destroy, a government (Pollard). However, the objectives and methods of terrorist groups remain significantly different that those of transnational organized crime syndicates. Terrorist groups generally seek an overthrow of the status quo; they use particular operations that will attract the attention of the world. This holds two important ideas for the strategy of counter-terrorism in the United States.

    First, if terrorists keep interacting with organized crime syndicates, they could evolve organizationally, to adapt to such interaction. If terrorist interaction with transnational crime syndicates is successful enough the infrastructures of these interactions might be robust enough to provide terrorists with real opportunities, including the introduction of a weapon of mass destruction into the United States. There maybe a decline possibly even extinction of what we traditionally considered "ideological" terrorism: namely, the phenomenon that brought terrorism to the global Army Faction, Red Brigades, Japanese Red Army, etc. Since the end of the Cold War it has resulted in the dying of support for anti-Democratic/anti-Capitalist, Marxist-based ideologically motivated political terrorists. At the end of the Cold War, ideological terrorism lost its support. However, the depolarization of the world has allowed several ethno-religious conflicts, to manifest themselves in terrorism, insurgency, regional instability, and civil war. Ethno-religious terrorism will not die away, and could respond to several future stimuli. Examples of these stimuli include: an increasing US presence in the Middle East and Pacific Rim, Western development of the Caspian oil reserves, and flourishing Western technological development in the Middle East and Pacific Rim. Former Soviet Republics might grow less stable as outside influences increase (economic, political and technological/media), Russia's ability to suppress insurgency lessens, economic conditions in those republics decline, and political power becomes a commodity for corruption and organized crime. This along with the evolution of state will likely drive terrorism and guerrilla warfare into being more broadly rejection: attacking more than just the general legitimacy of states, but also Non-Governmental Organizations, Multi-National Corporations, etc. Also, keyed in with the rise in single-issue terrorism will be the rise in "true" guerrilla movements within the US: that is, movements that seek the destruction of the US government, rather than movements that seek to influence government, a particular policy or population.

Obviously it is going to be increasingly difficult to infiltrate terrorist groups in the future. Anti-apprehension if you will. With the advent of the computer age, and "computer smart" terrorist can literally vanish off the face of the planet. A computer literate terrorist can alter computer files and change dates of airline tickets, hotels, etc. Constant observation and intelligence is essential to the prevention of terrorism.

RESEARCH METHODS 

This is a statistical view of how international terrorism has affected the United States and other surrounding countries.

Charts:

--International Incidents Since 1971
--International Incidents and Casualties by Region, 1997
--Total Casualties Worldwide, 1987-1997
--Casualties Per Incident of International Terrorism, 1987-97
--International Incidents by Facility, 1997
--International Incidents by Victim, 1997
--International Incidents by Type of Event, 1997
--Anti-US Attacks, 1987-97
--US Casualties, 1987-97
--Anti-US Attacks by Region, 1997

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

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REFERENCES

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Last updated: 11/19/01